One of the most attractive matchups of the Sweet 16 of the 2022 NCAA Tournament takes place on Thursday evening in San Francisco. Mike Krzyzewski, coaching in his final NCAA Tournament, and the No. 2 seed Duke Blue Devils take on Mark Adams and the No. 3 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders. Duke is 30-6 this season and 11-2 in the 13 games after a win over Michigan State in the second round. Texas Tech is 27-9 overall in Adams’ first season at the helm, knocking off Notre Dame to reach the Sweet 16.
Tipoff is at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Red Raiders as one-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 137 in the latest Duke vs. Texas Tech odds. Before making any Texas Tech vs. Duke picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $1,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Texas Tech and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2022. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model’s college basketball picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Texas Tech vs. Duke:
- Duke vs. Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -1
- Duke vs. Texas Tech over-under: 137 points
- Duke vs. Texas Tech money line: TTU -115, Duke -105
- Duke: The Blue Devils are 3-8 against the spread in the last 11 games
- Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are 6-5 against the spread in the last 11 games
Why Duke can cover
Duke is underrated on defense, landing in the top 50 nationally in efficiency and posting the No. 2 mark in the country in free-throw rate allowed. The Blue Devils are blocking more than 13 percent of shots on defense, and opponents are shooting only 32 percent from 3-point range and 46 percent on two-point attempts this season. With that baseline, Duke’s explosive offense takes the reins, and the Blue Devils are in the top five of the country in points per possession.
Duke is in the top 10 of the nation in shooting efficiency, including 37.9 percent shooting from long distance and 56.1 percent shooting inside the 3-point arc. Duke takes care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 15.1 percent of possessions, and the Blue Devils secure 32 percent of available rebounds on the offensive glass. Duke is also the better free-throw shooting team in this matchup, and Texas Tech struggles to keep opponents off the charity stripe.
Why Texas Tech can cover
Texas Tech’s offense is strong, even if underrated. The Red Raiders land above the national average in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Texas Tech is in the top 25 of the nation in 2-point accuracy at 55.0 percent. The Red Raiders are also strongly above-average in free-throw creation rate this season. Duke is outside the top 300 in the country in turnover creation rate on defense at 15.9 percent, and the Blue Devils are below-average on the defensive glass with a 71.1 percent defensive rebound rate.
On the other end, Texas Tech has the best adjusted defensive efficiency mark in the country, and the Red Raiders hold opponents to 44.0 percent on 2-point shots and 31.4 percent on 3-point shots. Texas Tech also creates havoc with a 23.5 percent turnover rate, and opponents commit a live-ball turnover on 11.9 percent of offensive possessions against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech also has an edge on the glass, allowing the Red Raiders to close possessions with regularity.
How to make Texas Tech vs. Duke picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 142 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Duke vs. Texas Tech? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.